Wall Street is bracing for Tesla earnings pain after the EV-maker's dismal delivery numbers
April 21, 2025
Tesla
is set to report its first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, and Wall Street is bracing for more pain.
The electric vehicle maker's stock is down 44% year-to-date as investors grapple with numerous worries, including a slowdown in vehicle sales, the impact of President Donald Trump's 25% auto tariffs, and reported delays of a
lower-cost Tesla model
.
Investors already got a glimpse of Tesla's first-quarter results when the company reported
vehicle deliveries data
earlier this month
,
which were significantly worse than expected.
The company said it delivered 336,681 vehicles in the quarter, well below estimates of nearly 380,000 and down 13% from a year ago.
Here's what Wall Street expects from Tesla when it reports results on Tuesday.
Barclays: Watch out for weak profit margins
Barclays warned that falling profit margins or a tepid outlook from Tesla management "could be a splash of cold water on the stock."
In a note last week, the firm's analysts said its 2025 Tesla earnings per share estimate is $2.24, which is below consensus estimates of $2.65 and well below the consensus estimate at the start of the year of more than $3.20.
The firm said that while there is potential for a "good narrative" for Tesla related to
CEO Elon Musk
refocusing his time at the company and a coming
Full-Self-Driving
event, that could be outweighed by "weak fundamentals."
"Amid a soft start on 2025 volume, we believe it will be increasingly difficult for Tesla to achieve volume growth in 2025 — we now forecast negative volumes," Barclays said.
Barclays rates Tesla at "Equal Weight" and lowered its price target to $275 from $325.
Wedbush: A 'Code Red Situation' for Elon Musk
Wedbush analyst
Dan Ives
, who has long been bullish on Tesla, said in a note on Sunday that Elon Musk is facing a "Code Red Situation."
According to Ives, Musk needs to distance himself from the government's
DOGE
committee, which investors worry is distracting him from Tesla this year and turning the EV maker's brand into a political talking point.
Ives said there is "potentially 15%-20% permanent demand destruction for future Tesla buyers due to the brand damage Musk has created with DOGE."
Ultimately, Ives said Tesla's earnings call on Tuesday will represent a "fork in the road" for the company.
Ives wants to see a number of announcements on Tuesday, including: a date for its
cyber taxi network
to be rolled out, when investors can expect a low-cost vehicle to enter production, a sales timeline for its
Optimus robot
, and how the company will return to growth in 2025.
Wedbush rates Tesla at "Outperform" with a $315 price target.
Wells Fargo: More signs of weak demand
Wells Fargo analysts said they are seeing increasing signs of weak demand for Tesla vehicles across regions.
The firm highlighted that Tesla has started to offer 0% APR on loans for its
new Model Y
vehicle in China, which is "a sign of weak demand."
"In the US, the
new
Model Y is available in 2-4 weeks in New York & immediately available in LA, indicating another sign of softening demand," the bank said.
Wells Fargo said Tesla is on track to deliver just 1.35 million vehicles in 2025 based on annualized first-quarter deliveries, which is 27% below consensus estimates. The bank estimates Tesla will deliver 1.66 million vehicles this year, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 7%.
Additionally, the bank warned that a new low-cost vehicle could cannibalize demand for Tesla's higher-priced
Model Y
, hurting profit margins.
Wells Fargo rates Tesla at "Underweight" with a $130 price target.
Deutsche Bank: Weakness is spreading across regions
Following Tesla's first-quarter delivery results, analysts at Deutsche Bank revised lower their estimates for the company's full-year deliveries.
The firm now expects Tesla to deliver about 1.7 million vehicles this year, down 5% year-over-year.
"Geographically, we had already factored in a very weak performance from Europe, therefore, US likely led to the downside," Deutsche Bank said of vehicle sales.
The firm also expects Tesla's profit margins to suffer, potentially dropping to the 10% to 11% range from 13.6% in the fourth quarter.
Deutsche Bank rates Tesla at "Buy" with a $345 price target.
JPMorgan: 'Unprecedented brand damage'
JPMorgan reduced its earnings estimates for Tesla following its weak first-quarter delivery results.
Following the results, the bank said it "may have underestimated the degree of consumer reaction" to Tesla and Elon Musk.
"The trend in Tesla sales is worse than we and the market had appreciated, prompting us to lower our already below consensus estimates accordingly and to expect consensus to decline further, toward our new lower estimates," JPMorgan said.
The bank expects Tesla to sell about 1.7 million vehicles in 2025 and earn $2.30 per share in the full year.
JPMorgan rates Tesla at "Underweight" with a $120 price target.
