'Wild time': Wall Street strategists warn of uncertain outlook amid Trump's tariffs
April 16, 2025
President Donald Trump’s “
Liberation Day
” tariffs set off one of the most volatile periods of
stock trading
in U.S. history – and uncertainty still looms over Wall Street, analysts told ABC News.
Tariffs
remain the primary mover of stock prices, putting market strategists and everyday investors in the near-impossible position of anticipating Trump’s next decision and its potential fallout, the analysts said.
Analysts warned of a possible
economic downturn
that would pummel stocks but urged investors to hold on to shares if they can resist the temptation to sell, since markets typically rise over the long term.
The Trump administration’s policy swerves “leave the markets kind of baffled, without investors having a clear idea of whether they should hold or fold when it comes to their own stock portfolio,” Ed Yardeni, the president of market advisory firm Yardeni Research and former chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank's U.S. equities division, told ABC News.
Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, told investors this week: “Trying to predict policy – or markets’ next move – is a fool’s errand.”
After Trump’s tariff announcement in the Rose Garden on April 2, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
suffered
their biggest one-day losses since the pandemic. When Trump paused some of the tariffs a week later, the indexes soared, recovering much of their losses. Since then, however, an escalating trade war with tariffs has contributed to topsy-turvy markets.
Each of the major indexes stands lower than it did before Trump’s tariff announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped about 4%, while the S&P 500 has fallen roughly 5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has also declined roughly 5%.
As markets swung, bond yields
climbed
and the U.S. dollar depreciated, prompting concerns about assets that typically serve as safe-haven investments during moments of instability for stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield, which helps set interest rates for mortgages and credit cards, has eased in recent days but stands well above its level at the outset of this month.
“It’s a wild time,” Mike Loukas, CEO of TrueMark Investments, told ABC News.
The volatility poses a challenge for market strategists, since the swings in day-to-day stock prices can be traced in large part to White House policies and announcements, rather than to economic data or corporate profits, analysts said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell
said Wednesday
that he expects the tariffs to hike inflation and slow economic growth. Within minutes, stocks plummeted.
During his remarks, Powell also said that recent stock volatility reflected the significance of the policy changes from the White House, rather than abnormal behavior in the markets.
"Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty and that means volatility," Powell told the audience at the Economic Club of Chicago. "They're functioning just about as you'd expect them to function."
Despite the market turmoil, the economy remains in solid shape by several key measures.
The unemployment rate stands at a historically low level and hiring exceeded expectations last month. Additionally, inflation cooled in March, putting price increases well below a peak attained in 2022, fresh data last week
showed
.
Still, that positive economic data covers a period before the April 2 tariffs announcement. A top measure of consumer sentiment this month dropped to a level lower than at any point during the Great Recession, according to a survey conducted by the
University of Michigan
. Numerous Wall Street firms and prominent investors also have raised their odds of the U.S. experiencing a recession within the next year.
The latest developments in tariff policy will continue to move markets, analysts said.
The Trump administration last week paused so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on most countries for 90 days, vowing to pursue trade agreements with about 75 countries over that period. A high-stakes
standoff
between the U.S. and China – the world’s two largest economies – holds implications for many large U.S. firms.
San Diego-based financial firm LPL Financial said Tuesday that it had suspended its estimate of a year-end target level for the S&P 500.
“With little visibility into where tariff rates shake out and the effects on earnings, it’s hard to have much conviction,” LPL Financial said in a memo to investors.
While acknowledging the continued uncertainty, analysts who spoke to ABC News advised investors to remain in stocks if they view the holdings as long-term investments.
Loukas, of TrueMark Investments, said he views Trump's tariffs policy as an effort to negotiate trade agreements, saying recent volatility is likely "a short-term gyration for the market."
However, he added: "Take it with a grain of salt. If we’re wrong, there could be impact for the underlying economic picture."
“You’re basically taking a bet on the U.S. economy and on American companies,” Yardeni said.
“One of the things I’ve learned in 45 years of this business: It’s amazing how the economy and stock market do over time, despite Washington," Yardeni added.
