
Wall Street’s Trading Revenue Powered by Tariff Uncertainty

A surge in trading activity fueled by investor uncertainty about President Trump’s policies is minting money for Goldman Sachs and other big banks.
The Wall Street firm joined JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley in reporting a bigger profit for the first quarter, fueled by record revenue in its equities trading and lending unit. Banks have been raking in fees as investors reposition their portfolios in anticipation of how Trump’s trade and other economic policies might rattle markets .
Most Read from The Wall Street Journal
Still, top executives inside big banks are on edge about what might come next for their businesses and corporate clients.
“The prospect of a recession has increased with growing indications that economic activity is slowing down around the world,” Goldman Chief Executive David Solomon said on a call with analysts Monday.
Goldman’s board approved up to $40 billion in share buybacks during the first quarter, which Solomon said will give the firm greater capital management flexibility.
Banks’ bumper profits came before the market turmoil set off by Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, and the subsequent confusion on how they will be enforced. Wall Street executives have warned that Trump’s tariffs are sending the economy into the unknown and that they couldn’t say with certainty how his moves will affect their businesses .
In the first three months of the year, Goldman’s profit rose 15% to $4.74 billion. That amounted to $14.12 per share, easily surpassing analyst expectations.
Revenue rose 6% to $15.06 billion, also topping forecasts. An increase in trading revenue was led by a 27% jump in the bank’s equities businesses, including trading and lending to its trading clients.
Goldman said revenue in equity derivatives was particularly high, as investors looked to prepare themselves for volatility.
At the start of the year, many investor portfolios were positioned for “American exceptionalism” trades to continue or accelerate, top bank executives say. Now many clients are seeking to lessen their exposure to U.S. stocks and the dollar in exchange for international assets, including to Europe and South America, executives say.
Solomon said during the analyst call that the firm was encouraged by recent indications that the administration plans to pursue a more gradual policy on tariffs. But he said clients’ concerns about what is in store for the near and long term have constrained their ability to make important decisions. “This uncertainty around the path forward and fears over the potentially escalating effects of a trade war, have created material risks to the U.S. and global economy,” he said.