Consumer Subscription Stocks Q4 Teardown: Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH) Vs The Rest
April 7, 2025
As the craze of earnings season draws to a close, here’s a look back at some of the most exciting (and some less so) results from Q4. Today, we are looking at consumer subscription stocks, starting with Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH).
Consumers today expect goods and services to be hyper-personalized and on demand. Whether it be what music they listen to, what movie they watch, or even finding a date, online consumer businesses are expected to delight their customers with simple user interfaces that magically fulfill demand. Subscription models have further increased usage and stickiness of many online consumer services.
The 8 consumer subscription stocks we track reported a mixed Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 1.6% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was in line.
Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 34% since the latest earnings results.
Weakest Q4: Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH)
Originally started as a dial-up service before widespread internet adoption, Match (NASDAQ:MTCH) was an early innovator in online dating and today has a portfolio of apps including Tinder, Hinge, Archer, and OkCupid.
Match Group reported revenues of $860.2 million, flat year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations, but overall, it was a softer quarter for the company with a decline in its users.
"We had a strong finish to the year and are seeing solid peak season new user trends. We met our full-year 2024 AOI margin target through disciplined financial management. We're focused on executing the plan we laid out at Investor Day: driving innovation to spur user growth, generating strong free cash flow, and returning significant capital to shareholders. Our 2025 outlook remains unchanged since Investor Day on a FX neutral basis, though the strengthening U.S. dollar continues to put pressure on as reported results," said Steven Bailey, Incoming CFO.
Match Group delivered the weakest full-year guidance update of the whole group. The company reported 14.61 million users, down 3.8% year on year. The stock is down 26.7% since reporting and currently trades at $26.72.
With courses ranging from investing to cooking to computer programming, Udemy (NASDAQ:UDMY) is an online learning platform that connects learners with expert instructors who specialize in a wide range of topics.
Udemy reported revenues of $199.9 million, up 5.5% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.7%. The business had a strong quarter with EBITDA guidance for next quarter exceeding analysts’ expectations.
Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 15.1% since reporting. It currently trades at $6.64.
Started as a physical textbook rental service, Chegg (NYSE:CHGG) is now a digital platform addressing student pain points by providing study and academic assistance.
Chegg reported revenues of $143.5 million, down 23.7% year on year, in line with analysts’ expectations. It was a slower quarter as it posted a decline in its users.
Chegg delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates and slowest revenue growth in the group. The company reported 3.64 million users, down 20.5% year on year. As expected, the stock is down 67.6% since the results and currently trades at $0.51.
Founded by a Carnegie Mellon computer science professor and his Ph.D. student, Duolingo (NASDAQ:DUOL) is a mobile app helping people learn new languages.
Duolingo reported revenues of $209.6 million, up 38.8% year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 2.1%. Taking a step back, it was a slower quarter as it recorded EBITDA guidance for the next quarter missing analysts’ expectations.
Duolingo pulled off the fastest revenue growth among its peers. The company reported 116.7 million users, up 32% year on year. The stock is down 25.7% since reporting and currently trades at $278.
Founded by two Stanford University computer science professors, Coursera (NYSE:COUR) is an online learning platform that offers courses, specializations, and degrees from top universities and organizations around the world.
Coursera reported revenues of $179.2 million, up 6.1% year on year. This print beat analysts’ expectations by 1.6%. More broadly, it was a mixed quarter as it also recorded a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.
The company reported 168 million users, up 18.3% year on year. The stock is down 39.6% since reporting and currently trades at $5.78.
As a result of the Fed’s rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, inflation has come down from frothy levels post-pandemic. The general rise in the price of goods and services is trending towards the Fed’s 2% goal as of late, which is good news. The higher rates that fought inflation also didn't slow economic activity enough to catalyze a recession. So far, soft landing. This, combined with recent rate cuts (half a percent in September 2024 and a quarter percent in November 2024) have led to strong stock market performance in 2024. The icing on the cake for 2024 returns was Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. Presidential Election in early November, sending major indices to all-time highs in the week following the election. Still, debates around the health of the economy and the impact of potential tariffs and corporate tax cuts remain, leaving much uncertainty around 2025.
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