Oil Advances as OPEC+ Supply Boost Vies With Geopolitical Risk

(Bloomberg) — Oil advanced as OPEC+ hiked production less than some had feared and geopolitical concerns flared over Ukraine and Iran.

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Brent ( BZ=F ) crude for August rose toward $65 a barrel after losing 2.2% last week, while West Texas Intermediate ( CL=F ) was above $62. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to add 411,000 barrels a day of supply in July, matching expectations, but defying reports late last week that the group was considering an even bigger volume.

Meanwhile, Ukraine struck air bases deep in Russia and Iran criticized a report showing its growing stockpiles of enriched uranium, in escalations that reduce the chance of more supply from the sanctioned OPEC+ members entering the market. Trade frictions also remained in focus, after President Donald Trump said he would be increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Monday’s move higher comes after a turbulent two months that saw prices tumble to a four-year low in the wake of Trump’s tariff wars, before recuperating some of those losses. Crude remains almost 15% lower this year, pressured by the simmering trade conflicts and the abandoning by OPEC+ of its former strategy of defending higher prices by curbing output.

OPEC+ officials said the quota boost reflected Saudi Arabia’s desire to punish over-producing members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. Some members — including Russia, Algeria and Oman — had wanted a pause. The group next meets on July 6 to discuss output levels for August.

“Brent should be well supported in the middle of our expected $60-$65 summer range until we get a better understanding of how quickly actual OPEC production is rising,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “We may be seeing signs that the pace of increase could slow in the coming months” as some members had wanted a lull in the quota hikes.

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